2007 Bowl Prediction Contest: 

Congratulations to 2007 bowl prediction champions Jon Turnes and Team UNC!

Top five: Turnes, Pigeon, McCune, Stein, Frey

Contest Rules:

1.  To participate in the contest, you should assign win probabilities summing to 100% to the two teams in each of the 32 bowl games.   You should then submit your list of predicted winners and their win probabilities (all 50% or higher) to Jesse Frey by 5 PM on December 20, 2007.   Please submit your list (of winners only) in the text of an e-mail rather than as an attachment.   Any predicted winners unaccompanied by win probabilities will be assigned win probabilities of 100%, and win probabilities of 50% will be assigned for any bowl game for which no winner is picked. 

2.  When submitting picks, you may also indicate one or more contest teams that you wish to be considered a part of.  Traditional contest teams include Team GEICO, Team Iowa, Team UNC, Team OSU, and Team Villanova.  Both an individual winner and a team winner will be identified.

3.  Your total score for the contest will be the sum of 32 game scores.  Each game score will be computed as (1-p)^2, where p is the win probability that you assigned to the winner of the game.  For example, if you assign win probabilities of 0.7 to LSU and 0.3 to Ohio State, then your game score will be (1-0.7)^2=0.09 if LSU wins and (1-0.3)^2=0.49 if Ohio State wins.  The participant with the lowest total score is the individual winner.  Scores for contest teams will also be sums of 32 game scores.  Each contest team's win probability for a given game will be the average of the win probabilities assigned by all team members. 

4.  Important note:  This is the fifth year that the contest has been run.  In three of the previous four years, only a handful of people have earned scores lower than the scores they would have earned had they assigned win probability 50% to each team.  This suggests that erring on the conservative side when assigning win probabilities may be a smart idea.

5.  In the past, it has been possible to post frequent contest updates during the bowl season.  This will not be the case this year.  However, all picks will be posted prior to the start of the first game.  Final results will be posted once all bowls are complete.

Past Winners:

2003:  M. Pavlicova (C. Newman in second)

2004:  E. Lam (D. Harville in second) and Team OSU

2005:  E. Lam (Y. C. Zhang in second) and Team OSU

2006:  C. Newman (T. Feeman in second) and Team UNC

List of Bowl Games:

1.  12/20 Utah versus Navy

2.  12/21 Memphis versus Florida Atlantic

3.  12/21 Southern Mississippi versus Cincinnati

4.  12/22 Nevada versus New Mexico

5.  12/22 UCLA versus Brigham Young

6.  12/23 Boise State versus East Carolina

7.  12/26 Purdue versus Central Michigan

8.  12/27 Arizona State versus Texas

9.  12/28 Boston College versus Michigan State

10.  12/28 Texas Christian versus Houston

11.  12/28 Maryland versus Oregon State

12.  12/29 Connecticut versus Wake Forest

13.  12/29 Central Florida versus Mississippi State

14.  12/29 Penn State versus Texas A&M

15.  12/30 Alabama versus Colorado

16.  12/31 California versus Air Force

17.  12/31 Georgia Tech versus Fresno State

18.  12/31 South Florida versus Oregon

19.  12/31 Kentucky versus Florida State

20.  12/31 Indiana versus Oklahoma State

21.  12/31 Clemson versus Auburn

22.  1/1 Wisconsin versus Tennessee

23.  1/1 Missouri versus Arkansas

24.  1/1 Texas Tech versus Virginia

25.  1/1 Michigan versus Florida

26.  1/1 Illinois versus Southern California

27.  1/1 Hawaii versus Georgia

28.  1/2 Oklahoma versus West Virginia

29.  1/3 Virginia Tech versus Kansas

30.  1/5 Rutgers versus Ball State

31.  1/6 Bowling Green versus Tulsa

32.  1/8 Louisiana State versus Ohio State

To do your own updating, download an Excel spreadsheet here and change the results column to put 0/1 next to the loser/winner.

The picks so far:

		Feeman	Frey	Harville	Lam	McCune	Newman	Park	Pigeon	Piser	Sauder	Stein	K. Tordoff	M. Tordoff	Turnes	Zhang	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
		VU	OSU-UNC-VU	GEICO	OSU	Iowa-UNC	GEICO-UNC	Iowa	VU	GEICO	Iowa	GEICO	OSU	OSU	GEICO	OSU	GEICO	Iowa	OSU	UNC	Villanova
Team	Result
Utah	1	0.400	0.760	0.300	0.400	0.740	0.520	0.750	0.660	0.550	0.550	0.650	0.450	0.400	0.744	0.600	0.553	0.680	0.522	0.673	0.607
Navy	0	0.600	0.240	0.700	0.600	0.260	0.480	0.250	0.340	0.450	0.450	0.350	0.550	0.600	0.256	0.400	0.447	0.320	0.478	0.327	0.393
	Score	0.360	0.058	0.490	0.360	0.068	0.230	0.063	0.116	0.203	0.203	0.123	0.303	0.360	0.066	0.160	0.200	0.102	0.228	0.107	0.155
Memphis	0	0.550	0.400	0.350	0.550	0.450	0.820	0.450	0.450	0.490	0.470	0.430	0.450	0.650	0.415	0.550	0.501	0.457	0.520	0.557	0.467
FL Atlantic	1	0.450	0.600	0.650	0.450	0.550	0.180	0.550	0.550	0.510	0.530	0.570	0.550	0.350	0.585	0.450	0.499	0.543	0.480	0.443	0.533
	Score	0.663	0.218	0.613	0.663	0.270	0.903	0.265	0.318	0.443	0.423	0.307	0.505	0.783	0.238	0.463	0.451	0.311	0.499	0.417	0.372
Southern Miss	0	0.330	0.230	0.150	0.550	0.220	0.320	0.100	0.280	0.375	0.400	0.450	0.050	0.300	0.212	0.300	0.301	0.240	0.286	0.257	0.280
Cincinnati	1	0.670	0.770	0.850	0.450	0.780	0.680	0.900	0.720	0.625	0.600	0.550	0.950	0.700	0.788	0.700	0.699	0.760	0.714	0.743	0.720
	Score	0.771	0.271	0.635	0.965	0.319	1.005	0.275	0.397	0.583	0.583	0.510	0.508	0.873	0.283	0.553	0.542	0.369	0.581	0.482	0.451
Nevada	0	0.470	0.380	0.480	0.450	0.430	0.470	0.400	0.440	0.470	0.490	0.520	0.550	0.600	0.415	0.550	0.471	0.440	0.506	0.427	0.430
New Mexico	1	0.530	0.620	0.520	0.550	0.570	0.530	0.600	0.560	0.530	0.510	0.480	0.450	0.400	0.585	0.450	0.529	0.560	0.494	0.573	0.570
	Score	0.992	0.415	0.865	1.168	0.503	1.226	0.435	0.590	0.804	0.824	0.780	0.810	1.233	0.455	0.855	0.764	0.562	0.837	0.665	0.636
UCLA	0	0.510	0.460	0.350	0.700	0.330	0.410	0.350	0.380	0.490	0.450	0.630	0.200	0.350	0.282	0.650	0.432	0.377	0.472	0.400	0.450
BYU	1	0.490	0.540	0.650	0.300	0.670	0.590	0.650	0.620	0.510	0.550	0.370	0.800	0.650	0.718	0.350	0.568	0.623	0.528	0.600	0.550
	Score	1.252	0.627	0.988	1.658	0.612	1.394	0.558	0.735	1.044	1.026	1.177	0.850	1.355	0.534	1.278	0.951	0.704	1.060	0.825	0.838
Boise State	0	0.700	0.770	0.800	0.550	0.780	0.540	0.900	0.710	0.600	0.600	0.720	0.900	0.650	0.795	0.700	0.691	0.760	0.714	0.697	0.727
East Carolina	1	0.300	0.230	0.200	0.450	0.220	0.460	0.100	0.290	0.400	0.400	0.280	0.100	0.350	0.205	0.300	0.309	0.240	0.286	0.303	0.273
	Score	1.742	1.219	1.628	1.960	1.221	1.686	1.368	1.239	1.404	1.386	1.696	1.660	1.778	1.166	1.768	1.428	1.282	1.569	1.310	1.366
Purdue	1	0.530	0.660	0.480	0.600	0.750	0.600	1.000	0.670	0.750	0.750	0.700	0.800	0.600	0.766	0.650	0.659	0.833	0.662	0.670	0.620
Central Michigan	0	0.470	0.340	0.520	0.400	0.250	0.400	0.000	0.330	0.250	0.250	0.300	0.200	0.400	0.234	0.350	0.341	0.167	0.338	0.330	0.380
	Score	1.963	1.335	1.898	2.120	1.283	1.846	1.368	1.348	1.467	1.449	1.786	1.700	1.938	1.221	1.890	1.544	1.309	1.684	1.419	1.511
Arizona State	0	0.560	0.590	0.600	0.450	0.470	0.570	0.750	0.450	0.470	0.470	0.370	0.600	0.650	0.415	0.700	0.485	0.563	0.598	0.543	0.533
Texas	1	0.440	0.410	0.400	0.550	0.530	0.430	0.250	0.550	0.530	0.530	0.630	0.400	0.350	0.585	0.300	0.515	0.437	0.402	0.457	0.467
	Score	2.277	1.683	2.258	2.323	1.504	2.171	1.930	1.550	1.688	1.669	1.923	2.060	2.360	1.393	2.380	1.779	1.627	2.041	1.714	1.795
Boston College	1	0.600	0.510	0.750	0.550	0.590	0.660	0.850	0.570	0.625	0.550	0.550	0.450	0.650	0.637	0.550	0.644	0.663	0.542	0.587	0.560
Michigan State	0	0.400	0.490	0.250	0.450	0.410	0.340	0.150	0.430	0.375	0.450	0.450	0.550	0.350	0.363	0.450	0.356	0.337	0.458	0.413	0.440
	Score	2.437	1.923	2.321	2.525	1.672	2.286	1.953	1.735	1.828	1.872	2.125	2.363	2.483	1.525	2.583	1.906	1.740	2.251	1.885	1.989
Texas Christian	1	0.600	0.670	0.650	0.550	0.600	0.530	0.600	0.580	0.490	0.510	0.510	0.450	0.450	0.654	0.700	0.567	0.570	0.564	0.600	0.617
Houston	0	0.400	0.330	0.350	0.450	0.400	0.470	0.400	0.420	0.510	0.490	0.490	0.550	0.550	0.346	0.300	0.433	0.430	0.436	0.400	0.383
	Score	2.597	2.032	2.443	2.728	1.832	2.507	2.113	1.911	2.088	2.112	2.365	2.665	2.785	1.645	2.673	2.094	1.925	2.441	2.045	2.136
Maryland	0	0.430	0.330	0.400	0.450	0.360	0.510	0.350	0.400	0.530	0.470	0.580	0.300	0.250	0.306	0.200	0.465	0.393	0.306	0.400	0.387
Oregon State	1	0.570	0.670	0.600	0.550	0.640	0.490	0.650	0.600	0.470	0.530	0.420	0.700	0.750	0.694	0.800	0.535	0.607	0.694	0.600	0.613
	Score	2.782	2.141	2.603	2.930	1.962	2.767	2.235	2.071	2.369	2.333	2.702	2.755	2.848	1.739	2.713	2.310	2.080	2.535	2.205	2.285
Connecticut	0	0.550	0.510	0.450	0.600	0.440	0.420	0.750	0.440	0.480	0.470	0.530	0.400	0.350	0.415	0.350	0.459	0.553	0.442	0.457	0.500
Wake Forest	1	0.450	0.490	0.550	0.400	0.560	0.580	0.250	0.560	0.520	0.530	0.470	0.600	0.650	0.585	0.650	0.541	0.447	0.558	0.543	0.500
	Score	3.084	2.401	2.806	3.290	2.155	2.944	2.798	2.265	2.600	2.554	2.982	2.915	2.970	1.911	2.835	2.521	2.386	2.730	2.413	2.535
Central Florida	0	0.540	0.590	0.700	0.550	0.580	0.560	0.600	0.560	0.520	0.470	0.400	0.550	0.550	0.618	0.550	0.560	0.550	0.558	0.577	0.563
Mississippi State	1	0.460	0.410	0.300	0.450	0.420	0.440	0.400	0.440	0.480	0.530	0.600	0.450	0.450	0.382	0.450	0.440	0.450	0.442	0.423	0.437
	Score	3.376	2.749	3.296	3.593	2.492	3.257	3.158	2.579	2.870	2.775	3.142	3.218	3.273	2.293	3.138	2.834	2.688	3.041	2.746	2.853
Penn State	1	0.520	0.520	0.650	0.400	0.660	0.610	0.850	0.610	0.560	0.600	0.850	0.700	0.700	0.702	0.550	0.674	0.703	0.574	0.597	0.550
Texas A&M	0	0.480	0.480	0.350	0.600	0.340	0.390	0.150	0.390	0.440	0.400	0.150	0.300	0.300	0.298	0.450	0.326	0.297	0.426	0.403	0.450
	Score	3.606	2.980	3.418	3.953	2.607	3.409	3.180	2.731	3.064	2.935	3.165	3.308	3.363	2.382	3.340	2.940	2.776	3.223	2.909	3.055
Alabama	1	0.490	0.580	0.480	0.550	0.600	0.590	0.550	0.570	0.540	0.570	0.590	0.600	0.550	0.631	0.450	0.566	0.573	0.546	0.590	0.547
Colorado	0	0.510	0.420	0.520	0.450	0.400	0.410	0.450	0.430	0.460	0.430	0.410	0.400	0.450	0.369	0.550	0.434	0.427	0.454	0.410	0.453
	Score	3.866	3.156	3.689	4.155	2.767	3.578	3.383	2.916	3.275	3.120	3.333	3.468	3.565	2.518	3.643	3.128	2.958	3.429	3.077	3.261
California	1	0.400	0.570	0.200	0.450	0.600	0.510	0.400	0.570	0.490	0.530	0.610	0.550	0.550	0.637	0.650	0.489	0.510	0.554	0.560	0.513
Air Force	0	0.600	0.430	0.800	0.550	0.400	0.490	0.600	0.430	0.510	0.470	0.390	0.450	0.450	0.363	0.350	0.511	0.490	0.446	0.440	0.487
	Score	4.226	3.341	4.329	4.458	2.927	3.818	3.743	3.100	3.535	3.341	3.485	3.670	3.768	2.649	3.765	3.389	3.199	3.628	3.270	3.497
Georgia Tech	0	0.530	0.570	0.450	0.550	0.670	0.450	0.800	0.590	0.505	0.530	0.550	0.550	0.650	0.704	0.700	0.532	0.667	0.604	0.563	0.563
Fresno State	1	0.470	0.430	0.550	0.450	0.330	0.550	0.200	0.410	0.495	0.470	0.450	0.450	0.350	0.296	0.300	0.468	0.333	0.396	0.437	0.437
	Score	4.507	3.666	4.531	4.760	3.376	4.020	4.383	3.449	3.790	3.621	3.788	3.973	4.190	3.145	4.255	3.672	3.643	3.993	3.588	3.815
South Florida	0	0.530	0.480	0.550	0.550	0.680	0.610	0.450	0.630	0.530	0.470	0.620	0.700	0.400	0.730	0.450	0.608	0.533	0.516	0.590	0.547
Oregon	1	0.470	0.520	0.450	0.450	0.320	0.390	0.550	0.370	0.470	0.530	0.380	0.300	0.600	0.270	0.550	0.392	0.467	0.484	0.410	0.453
	Score	4.788	3.896	4.834	5.063	3.839	4.392	4.585	3.845	4.071	3.842	4.172	4.463	4.350	3.678	4.458	4.041	3.927	4.259	3.936	4.114
Kentucky	1	0.530	0.640	0.650	0.350	0.650	0.550	0.400	0.500	0.505	0.750	0.850	0.900	0.900	0.500	0.750	0.611	0.600	0.708	0.613	0.557
Florida State	0	0.470	0.360	0.350	0.650	0.350	0.450	0.600	0.500	0.495	0.250	0.150	0.100	0.100	0.500	0.250	0.389	0.400	0.292	0.387	0.443
	Score	5.009	4.026	4.956	5.485	3.961	4.595	4.945	4.095	4.316	3.905	4.195	4.473	4.360	3.928	4.520	4.193	4.087	4.344	4.085	4.310
Indiana	0	0.530	0.400	0.450	0.400	0.390	0.540	0.450	0.420	0.470	0.400	0.400	0.450	0.550	0.354	0.200	0.443	0.413	0.400	0.443	0.450
Oklahoma State	1	0.470	0.600	0.550	0.600	0.610	0.460	0.550	0.580	0.530	0.600	0.600	0.550	0.450	0.646	0.800	0.557	0.587	0.600	0.557	0.550
	Score	5.290	4.186	5.159	5.645	4.113	4.886	5.148	4.272	4.537	4.065	4.355	4.675	4.663	4.053	4.560	4.389	4.258	4.504	4.282	4.513
Clemson	0	0.580	0.510	0.650	0.400	0.540	0.570	0.600	0.540	0.490	0.470	0.420	0.450	0.250	0.572	0.600	0.540	0.537	0.442	0.540	0.543
Auburn	1	0.420	0.490	0.350	0.600	0.460	0.430	0.400	0.460	0.510	0.530	0.580	0.550	0.750	0.428