2006 Bowl Prediction Contest:

Congratulations to 2006 bowl prediction champions Corwyn Newman and Team UNC!

Top five: Newman, Feeman, Frey, McCune, Killian

Contest Rules:

1.  To participate in the contest, you should assign win probabilities summing to 100% to the two teams in each of the 32 bowl games.   You should then submit your list of predicted winners and their win probabilities (all 50% or higher) to Jesse Frey by 5 PM on December 18, 2006.   Please submit your list (of winners only) in the text of an e-mail rather than as an attachment.   Any predicted winners unaccompanied by win probabilities will be assigned win probabilities of 100%, and win probabilities of 50% will be assigned for any bowl game for which no winner is picked. 

2.  When submitting picks, you may also indicate one or more contest teams that you wish to be considered a part of.  Traditional contest teams include Team UNC, Team OSU, and Team GEICO.  Both an individual winner and a team winner will be identified.

3.  Your total score for the contest will be the sum of 32 game scores.  Each game score will be computed as w*(1-p)^2, where p is the win probability that you assigned to the winner of the game and w is the weight associated with the game.  Each game other than the five BCS games will have w=1, and the four non-championship BCS bowl games will have w=2.  The national championship game will have w=5.  For example, if you assign win probabilities of 0.7 to TCU and 0.3 to Northern Illinois, then your game score will be 1*(1-0.7)^2=0.09 if TCU wins and 1*(1-0.3)^2=0.49 if Northern Illinois wins.  The participant with the lowest total score is the individual winner.  Scores for contest teams will also be sums of 32 game scores.  Each contest team's win probability for a given game will be the average of the win probabilities assigned by all team members. 

4.  Important note:  This is the fourth year that the contest has been run.  In two of the previous three years, only a handful of people have earned scores lower than the scores they would have earned had they assigned win probability 50% to each team.  This suggests that erring on the conservative side when assigning win probabilities may be a smart idea.

5.  In the past, it has been possible to post frequent contest updates during the bowl season.  This will not be the case this year.  However, all picks will be posted prior to the start of the first game, and there should be a score update prior to the national championship game.  

Past Winners:

2003:  M. Pavlicova (C. Newman in second)

2004:  E. Lam (D. Harville in second) and Team OSU

2005:  E. Lam (Y. C. Zhang in second) and Team OSU

List of Bowl Games:

1.  12/19 TCU versus Northern Illinois

2.  12/20 BYU versus Oregon

3.  12/22 Rice versus Troy

4.  12/23 South Florida versus East Carolina

5.  12/23 New Mexico versus San Jose State

6.  12/23 Tulsa versus Utah

7.  12/24 Arizona State versus Hawaii

8.  12/26 Middle Tennessee State versus Central Michigan

9.  12/27 Florida State versus UCLA

10.  12/28 Oklahoma State versus Alabama

11.  12/28 California versus Texas A&M

12.  12/28 Rutgers versus Kansas State

13.  12/29 Clemson versus Kentucky

14.  12/29 Oregon State versus Missouri

15.  12/29 Houston versus South Carolina

16.  12/29 Texas Tech versus Minnesota

17.  12/29 Purdue versus Maryland

18.  12/30 Navy versus Boston College

19.  12/30 Texas versus Iowa

20.  12/30 Georgia versus Virginia Tech

21.  12/31 Miami, FL versus Nevada

22.  1/1 Tennessee versus Penn State

23.  1/1 Auburn versus Nebraska

24.  1/1 West Virginia versus Georgia Tech

25.  1/1 Arkansas versus Wisconsin

26.  1/1 Southern California versus Michigan (w=2)

27.  1/1 Boise State versus Oklahoma (w=2)

28.  1/2 Louisville versus Wake Forest (w=2)

29.  1/3 Notre Dame versus LSU (w=2)

30.  1/6 Cincinnati versus Western Michigan

31.  1/7 Ohio versus Southern Mississippi

32.  1/8 Florida versus Ohio State (w=5)

The picks so far:

		Feeman	Frey	Harville	Killian	Lam	McCune	Newman	Piser	Sauder	Seok	K. Tordoff	M. Tordoff	Turnes	Zhang	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
		VU	OSU-UNC-VU	GEICO	GEICO	OSU	Iowa-UNC	GEICO-UNC	GEICO	Iowa	Iowa	OSU		GEICO	OSU	GEICO	Iowa	UNC	OSU	Villanova
Team	Result
TCU	1	0.480	0.770	0.680	0.570	0.350	0.800	0.600	0.600	0.600	0.850	0.700	0.750	0.750	0.450	0.640	0.750	0.723	0.568	0.625
No.  Illinois	0	0.520	0.230	0.320	0.430	0.650	0.200	0.400	0.400	0.400	0.150	0.300	0.250	0.250	0.550	0.360	0.250	0.277	0.433	0.375
1	Score	0.270	0.053	0.102	0.185	0.423	0.040	0.160	0.160	0.160	0.023	0.090	0.063	0.063	0.303	0.130	0.063	0.077	0.187	0.141
BYU	1	0.470	0.600	0.620	0.530	0.300	0.590	0.530	0.480	0.450	0.800	0.450	0.400	0.592	0.600	0.550	0.613	0.573	0.488	0.535
Oregon	0	0.530	0.400	0.380	0.470	0.700	0.410	0.470	0.520	0.550	0.200	0.550	0.600	0.408	0.400	0.450	0.387	0.427	0.513	0.465
1	Score	0.551	0.213	0.247	0.406	0.913	0.208	0.381	0.430	0.463	0.063	0.393	0.423	0.229	0.463	0.332	0.212	0.259	0.450	0.357
Rice	0	0.510	0.670	0.560	0.530	0.600	0.640	0.470	0.510	0.530	0.550	0.650	0.650	0.654	0.440	0.545	0.573	0.593	0.590	0.590
Troy	1	0.490	0.330	0.440	0.470	0.400	0.360	0.530	0.490	0.470	0.450	0.350	0.350	0.346	0.560	0.455	0.427	0.407	0.410	0.410
1	Score	0.811	0.662	0.560	0.687	1.273	0.618	0.602	0.691	0.743	0.365	0.815	0.845	0.657	0.656	0.629	0.541	0.611	0.798	0.705
So. Florida	1	0.500	0.570	0.590	0.540	0.550	0.600	0.520	0.610	0.580	0.900	0.550	0.550	0.602	0.700	0.572	0.693	0.563	0.593	0.535
E. Carolina	0	0.500	0.430	0.410	0.460	0.450	0.400	0.480	0.390	0.420	0.100	0.450	0.450	0.398	0.300	0.428	0.307	0.437	0.408	0.465
1	Score	1.061	0.847	0.729	0.898	1.475	0.778	0.832	0.843	0.920	0.375	1.018	1.048	0.815	0.746	0.811	0.635	0.801	0.964	0.921
New Mexico	0	0.470	0.510	0.460	0.520	0.400	0.590	0.350	0.530	0.350	0.100	0.600	0.600	0.597	0.650	0.491	0.347	0.483	0.540	0.490
San Jose State	1	0.530	0.490	0.540	0.480	0.600	0.410	0.650	0.470	0.650	0.900	0.400	0.400	0.403	0.350	0.509	0.653	0.517	0.460	0.510
1	Score	1.282	1.107	0.940	1.169	1.635	1.126	0.955	1.124	1.042	0.385	1.378	1.408	1.171	1.169	1.053	0.755	1.035	1.255	1.161
Tulsa	0	0.400	0.470	0.560	0.490	0.350	0.490	0.510	0.590	0.560	0.250	0.450	0.700	0.466	0.250	0.523	0.433	0.490	0.380	0.435
Utah	1	0.600	0.530	0.440	0.510	0.650	0.510	0.490	0.410	0.440	0.750	0.550	0.300	0.534	0.750	0.477	0.567	0.510	0.620	0.565
1	Score	1.442	1.328	1.254	1.409	1.758	1.366	1.215	1.472	1.356	0.448	1.580	1.898	1.389	1.231	1.327	0.943	1.275	1.400	1.351
Arizona State	0	0.540	0.490	0.370	0.470	0.650	0.290	0.450	0.480	0.550	0.100	0.350	0.300	0.322	0.700	0.418	0.313	0.410	0.548	0.515
Hawaii	1	0.460	0.510	0.630	0.530	0.350	0.710	0.550	0.520	0.450	0.900	0.650	0.700	0.678	0.300	0.582	0.687	0.590	0.453	0.485
1	Score	1.734	1.568	1.391	1.630	2.180	1.450	1.417	1.702	1.658	0.458	1.703	1.988	1.492	1.721	1.502	1.041	1.443	1.700	1.616
Middle Tenn.	0	0.450	0.430	0.390	0.430	0.450	0.230	0.220	0.530	0.470	0.450	0.250	0.200	0.269	0.450	0.368	0.383	0.293	0.395	0.440
Cent. Michigan	1	0.550	0.570	0.610	0.570	0.550	0.770	0.780	0.470	0.530	0.550	0.750	0.800	0.731	0.550	0.632	0.617	0.707	0.605	0.560
1	Score	1.936	1.753	1.543	1.815	2.383	1.503	1.466	1.983	1.879	0.660	1.765	2.028	1.565	1.924	1.637	1.188	1.529	1.856	1.809
Florida State	1	0.450	0.400	0.370	0.480	0.300	0.380	0.495	0.500	0.320	0.050	0.250	0.250	0.375	0.600	0.444	0.250	0.425	0.388	0.425
UCLA	0	0.550	0.600	0.630	0.520	0.700	0.620	0.505	0.500	0.680	0.950	0.750	0.750	0.625	0.400	0.556	0.750	0.575	0.613	0.575
1	Score	2.239	2.113	1.940	2.085	2.873	1.887	1.721	2.233	2.342	1.563	2.328	2.590	1.955	2.084	1.946	1.750	1.860	2.231	2.140
Oklahoma State	1	0.480	0.540	0.630	0.550	0.400	0.530	0.540	0.470	0.540	0.700	0.450	0.750	0.556	0.600	0.549	0.590	0.537	0.498	0.510
Alabama	0	0.520	0.460	0.370	0.450	0.600	0.470	0.460	0.530	0.460	0.300	0.550	0.250	0.444	0.400	0.451	0.410	0.463	0.503	0.490
1	Score	2.509	2.324	2.077	2.288	3.233	2.108	1.932	2.514	2.553	1.653	2.630	2.653	2.152	2.244	2.149	1.918	2.074	2.483	2.380
California	1	0.530	0.530	0.650	0.530	0.650	0.630	0.530	0.570	0.530	0.350	0.600	0.700	0.625	0.600	0.581	0.503	0.563	0.595	0.530
Texas A&M	0	0.470	0.470	0.350	0.470	0.350	0.370	0.470	0.430	0.470	0.650	0.400	0.300	0.375	0.400	0.419	0.497	0.437	0.405	0.470
1	Score	2.730	2.545	2.199	2.508	3.355	2.245	2.153	2.699	2.774	2.075	2.790	2.743	2.293	2.404	2.325	2.165	2.265	2.647	2.601
Rutgers	1	0.900	0.650	0.780	0.560	0.750	0.710	0.760	0.600	0.770	0.950	0.650	0.650	0.688	0.300	0.678	0.810	0.707	0.588	0.775
Kansas State	0	0.100	0.350	0.220	0.440	0.250	0.290	0.240	0.400	0.230	0.050	0.350	0.350	0.312	0.700	0.322	0.190	0.293	0.413	0.225
1	Score	2.740	2.668	2.247	2.702	3.418	2.329	2.211	2.859	2.827	2.078	2.913	2.865	2.390	2.894	2.429	2.201	2.351	2.817	2.652
Clemson	0	0.550	0.630	0.600	0.580	0.600	0.770	0.530	0.570	0.470	0.950	0.800	0.950	0.736	0.330	0.603	0.730	0.643	0.590	0.590
Kentucky	1	0.450	0.370	0.400	0.420	0.400	0.230	0.470	0.430	0.530	0.050	0.200	0.050	0.264	0.670	0.397	0.270	0.357	0.410	0.410
1	Score	3.043	3.065	2.607	3.038	3.778	2.922	2.492	3.184	3.048	2.980	3.553	3.768	2.932	3.003	2.793	2.734	2.765	3.166	3.000
Oregon State	1	0.520	0.560	0.560	0.530	0.550	0.600	0.510	0.530	0.490	0.150	0.550	0.650	0.587	0.550	0.543	0.413	0.557	0.553	0.540
Missouri	0	0.480	0.440	0.440	0.470	0.450	0.400	0.490	0.470	0.510	0.850	0.450	0.350	0.413	0.450	0.457	0.587	0.443	0.448	0.460
1	Score	3.273	3.258	2.801	3.259	3.980	3.082	2.732	3.405	3.308	3.703	3.755	3.890	3.103	3.205	3.001	3.078	2.962	3.366	3.211
Houston	0	0.300	0.460	0.470	0.420	0.400	0.320	0.360	0.360	0.390	0.350	0.250	0.200	0.333	0.350	0.389	0.353	0.380	0.365	0.380
South Carolina	1	0.700	0.540	0.530	0.580	0.600	0.680	0.640	0.640	0.610	0.650	0.750	0.800	0.667	0.650	0.611	0.647	0.620	0.635	0.620
1	Score	3.363	3.470	3.022	3.436	4.140	3.185	2.861	3.534	3.460	3.825	3.818	3.930	3.214	3.328	3.152	3.203	3.106	3.499	3.356
Texas Tech	1	0.400	0.560	0.540	0.540	0.650	0.700	0.490	0.560	0.610	0.250	0.800	0.600	0.672	0.540	0.560	0.520	0.583	0.638	0.480
Minnesota	0	0.600	0.440	0.460	0.460	0.350	0.300	0.510	0.440	0.390	0.750	0.200	0.400	0.328	0.460	0.440	0.480	0.417	0.363	0.520
1	Score	3.723	3.663	3.234	3.647	4.263	3.275	3.122	3.728	3.612	4.388	3.858	4.090	3.321	3.539	3.345	3.434	3.280	3.630	3.626
Purdue	0	0.530	0.480	0.460	0.480	0.600	0.499	0.470	0.410	0.590	0.350	0.450	0.600	0.474	0.580	0.459	0.480	0.483	0.528	0.505
Maryland	1	0.470	0.520	0.540	0.520	0.400	0.501	0.530	0.590	0.410	0.650	0.550	0.400	0.526	0.420	0.541	0.520	0.517	0.473	0.495
1	Score	4.004	3.894	3.445	3.878	4.623	3.524	3.342	3.896	3.960	4.510	4.060	4.450	3.546	3.876	3.556	3.664	3.513	3.909	3.881
Navy	0	0.430	0.400	0.720	0.470	0.700	0.320	0.420	0.350	0.410	0.050	0.400	0.250	0.333	0.680	0.459	0.260	0.380	0.545	0.415
Boston College	1	0.570	0.600	0.280	0.530	0.300	0.680	0.580	0.650	0.590	0.950	0.600	0.750	0.667	0.320	0.541	0.740	0.620	0.455	0.585
1	Score	4.189	4.054	3.964	4.099	5.113	3.626	3.519	4.018	4.129	4.513	4.220	4.513	3.657	4.338	3.766	3.731	3.657	4.206	4.053
Texas	1	0.630	0.740	0.710	0.560	0.350	0.780	0.690	0.700	0.710	0.000	0.850	0.900	0.736	0.550	0.679	0.497	0.737	0.623	0.685
Iowa	0	0.370	0.260	0.290	0.440	0.650	0.220	0.310	0.300	0.290	1.000	0.150	0.100	0.264	0.450	0.321	0.503	0.263	0.378	0.315
1	Score	4.326	4.121	4.048	4.292	5.535	3.674	3.615	4.108	4.213	5.513	4.243	4.523	3.726	4.540	3.869	3.985	3.727	4.348	4.153
Georgia	1	0.570	0.320	0.370	0.480	0.400	0.430	0.420	0.500	0.410	0.100	0.550	0.100	0.437	0.650	0.441	0.313	0.390	0.480	0.445
Virginia Tech	0	0.430	0.680	0.630	0.520	0.600	0.570	0.580	0.500	0.590	0.900	0.450	0.900	0.563	0.350	0.559	0.687	0.610	0.520	0.555
1	Score	4.511	4.584	4.445	4.563	5.895	3.999	3.951	4.358	4.561	6.323	4.445	5.333	4.043	4.663	4.181	4.456	4.099	4.619	4.461
Miami, Florida	1	0.560	0.470	0.440	0.520	0.550	0.580	0.540	0.540	0.530	0.450	0.550	0.700	0.581	0.700	0.524	0.520	0.530	0.568	0.515
Nevada	0	0.440	0.530	0.560	0.480	0.450	0.420	0.460	0.460	0.470	0.550	0.450	0.300	0.419	0.300	0.476	0.480	0.470	0.433